strategy of the UDF
In this draft strategy the Planning and Analytical Group formulates goals, objectives, and strategic principles for the United Democratic Forces for the period until the next election. This is not necessarily the parliamentary elections in 2008. These should be the first elections that meet the demands of the social and political forces other than the official authorities and the demands of international community formulated in the well-known “four points of OSCE”.
The draft strategy is based on the fact that there are organized political and public forces in Belarus, which want democratic changes and share common goals, despite their political platforms and organizational principles.
The draft strategy describes the general principles of the Strategy and does not contain detailed action plans. We base on the fact that the Strategy is an open document and a message of the Democratic Forces to the society suggesting a way out of the deadlock to where the current authorities are leading Belarus. Together with the economic and constitutional reforms, the Strategy is an alternative which we offer to the society today.
STRATEGIC GOALS OF THE UDF
The goal of the UDF is a free and prosperous Belarus.
The necessary conditions of freedom and prosperity are the following:
• Respect to human rights and freedoms;
• Political and economic independence;
• Democratic system of government
• Socially-oriented market economy;
• International openness.
Changes are inevitable in Belarus. Changes may turn into a crisis and deterioration of social and economic situation of all population groups, or, changes will go in an evolutionary way, in the direction of democratization, on the basis of coordinated actions of the pro-democratic forces and the authorities. We offer this option to the society and the authorities. Its implementation will ensure the essential social guarantees, which are the prerequisite of any political and social reforms, and will create new opportunities for all members of the society. This path will provide for social peace, ensuring the respect to the rights and freedoms, including the rights to property, to freedom of conscience, and stop persecution for political reasons.
Free election is a necessary step to implement the goals of the UDF. The election will open the path to the long-needed transformations without social disasters. The UDF consider initiation of free elections (under the OSCE principles) their strategic goal for the short-term period.
As the first step to the free election in the country, the UDF suggest that the authorities should start a constructive dialog with the leading political and public forces in Belarus. The UDF believe that consolidation of all healthy forces of the society, necessary for keeping the social peace and solving the problems of our country, can be reached through negotiation. The condition, proving the readiness of the authorities to cooperate with the Democratic Forces, is the release of all political prisoners.
STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES OF THE UDF
I. Assessment of the development of the situation
After 13 years of the authoritarian regime, Belarus enters the period of intensification of crisis effects in politics, economy, and social sphere. The regime has exhausted its internal and external resources; weakening of economic and political support from Russia demonstrated the weakness of the system created during these years. All layers of the Belarusian society feel in greater or lesser extent that the old authorities are losing their main function – the function of guarantor of stability. Worsening of the economic situation, pressure from the East and the West, growing dissatisfaction of the population will inevitably destabilize the authorities and force them to respond to the challenge. We believe that the only response to the challenge which will maintain social peace and ensure stable development of the country is to transfer to the path of modernization, which means not only liberalization of the economy, but also refusal from command managing methods and return of democratic norms and principles. Today the EU proposal is a real mechanism that can help realize the economic and political reforms in Belarus without deterioration of life standards.
Refusal from democratic modernization will inevitably lead to accumulation of both social-economic crisis and the crisis of power. Again the question of its legitimacy will become urgent. In this case two variants of development of events are possible: nomenclature coup, or mass uncontrolled protests. Both options mean the fall of the current system and, as a consequence, even greater fall of the life standards and then, a period of restoration of economy and democracy.
Taking this into account, the United Democratic Forces suggest that the Belarusian society should choose a path of peaceful evolution from authoritarianism to democracy. This is the path that meets the expectations of the Belarusian people: it will allow preserving everything that was positive during the previous period, and guarantee improvement of the situation in the future for everybody.
II. UDF suggest evolutionary path as a basis of their strategy
That means, transition to democracy is possible not only in case of one-time removal of the current regime, but also as a result of dialog of pro-democratic forces with the society and the current authorities. A dialog is possible if the democratic forces fulfill the following conditions:
• presenting to the society and the authorities a positive alternative in the form of vision of the future and a package of proposals how to modernize the state system, the economy, and the international relations;
• common goals and strategy of actions for the majority of supporters of change;
• consolidation of the majority of change supporters;
• support of the international community (both the West and Russia)
• intensive activities of democratic forces to implement the strategic plan.
These actions will result in the beginning of a negotiation process, free elections and inclusion of the democratic forces in the process of governing the country, the beginning of modernization of the society and the state.
III. UDF Act in Four Main Directions
It’s important that all directions of activity focus on working with the society, with its different groups, although some of them have more priority in the framework of this strategy (look in “Target Groups”). Democratic Forces consider different groups of population: people who are both satisfied and dissatisfied with the situation, elites, and representatives of authorities, and us as integral elements of the real Belarusian society. Only in condition that all voices are heard and interests of different groups are taken into account, a public dialog will be fruitful and will lead to national consensus.
1. Information Campaign, Dialog with the Society
Information campaign united all directions. It is targeted not only at concrete target groups. Its main addressee is the whole Belarusian society and the international community. Informing of all groups of population should be intensive and meet the goals and objectives if the UDF, it should be an important element of dialog and pressure campaigns.
Information campaign should not only show the minuses of the current system, but, first of all, form a positive attitude to democratic changes and confidence in their necessity and inevitability in the society.
Organizations, which are traditionally oriented at working with certain groups and have a certain influence among them (trade unions, NGOs) can play an important role in the information campaign. It is reasonable not only to use the present means of information or rely on external resources, but also to develop methods which are new for Belarus (Internet, media-activism, etc.)
2. Dialog with Elites
Just as other groups of the society, national elites (administration personnel of all levels) are more and more concerned about destabilization in the country and a threat to independence. Today the interests of the elites more and more coincide with the interests of the unsatisfied members of other population groups, and the interests of the UDF. It is necessary to propose cooperation to them and to use their influence for beginning of the negotiation. The UDF guarantees, that the elites will preserve their status and property within the limits of the democratic norms. Participation of the elites in preparation and introduction of the reforms will help them to strengthen their position.
The goal of the campaign of dialog with the elites is to inform the society in general and the national elites in particular about the position of the UDF, to establish contacts and cooperation of different levels to solve the economic and social problems. This campaign is closely connected with the “National Round Table” campaign.
It is possible, that the top elites will try to respond to the need to change the direction on their own (nomenclature coup). In this case the new authorities will desperately need the support of the forces which have influence in the society, and will need to legitimize of the changes, which have taken place, both inside and outside the country. In order to get that they will need to sit down at the negotiation table with these influential forces and announce free elections. The UDF should be prepared for such an option, by reinforcing their consolidation and influence on the society.
3. Dialog with the authorities
The UDF propose to the authorities cooperation in overcoming the economic, political, and social crisis. The UDF have a package of proposals to reform the state system and the economy, the necessary international contacts, and influence in the society. The UDF begin the “National Round Table” campaign, initiating the process of negotiation at all levels – from the local to the international ones. The goal of the campaign is to persuade the authorities and the society of the effectiveness of democratic modernization, and of the necessity of achieving national agreement through negotiation and free elections. International influence and participation of the authoritative international structures should be an important factor of this campaign.
Beginning of the negotiation on the highest level may be a consequence of pressure on the authorities by the society and the national elites, but, at the same time, may be a guarantee against possible coup or social explosion. Negotiations should result in free elections, formation of a coalition government, and beginning of the complex modernization.
4. Pressure on the authorities
Dissatisfaction of different groups of the society with their situation will inevitably develop into the growth of social tension and protests. It is necessary to give the needed direction to this process, indicating the reasons of the crisis and the possible ways to solve the problems. The UDF should make the active part of the unsatisfied in different social groups their allies and, with their support, to activate the potentially active, including the member of the so-called undecided group. The campaigns of activation, mobilization, and pressure can logically be united under the slogan of the single “for freedom” campaign. Its goal will be peaceful pressure on the authorities with the demand of reforms, i.e. negotiation process and free elections. In the conditions of exclusion of the opposition forces from the political life, coordinated pressure may become a strong mechanism of influence on the situation, and also may channel the possible spontaneous protest actions. Without the pressure campaign it would be difficult for the authorities to recognize the Democratic Forces an important factor and subject of the dialog.
With drastic deterioration of the social and economic situation it is possible that the part of the population which is usually passive in its reactions will grow protest moods and join mass actions. In this case fast removal of the highest authorities is possible. The UDF do not initiate such a situation but should be also prepared for such development of events. Only the forces that have a serious influence on the society will be called for in order to restore the social peace.
The four above mentioned campaigns of the UDF should be interconnected and coordinated between each other. The unifying role is played by a common information campaign.
Each campaign needs detailed action plans described in separate documents. Independent activity of organizations and citizens is possible within the framework of the proposed strategy, if it complies with its strategic goals and objectives. Depending on the situation this or that direction may get bigger priority and concentrate more efforts.
Simultaneous work of the democratic forces in all directions will prevent an uncontrollable social explosion, will give a possibility to the incumbent authorities to make an optimal choice, and will help the elites to keep their position. The main thing is that the active part of the society will receive an opportunity of self-realization and participation in the political life, and all the groups of the society will keep and strengthen the achieved level of welfare.
IV. Negotiation Process
The “National Round Table” campaign is a process of public dialog, initiated by the UDF. Its goals are to draw attention of the society to the vital problems; to propose effective models of their solution; to include representatives of the public structures, national elites, interested citizens, and the international community into the dialog. This way, we continue to form the positive alternative filling it with concrete contents. Dialog can be conducted on different levels—from the international one to separate enterprises in the regions. The topics of the dialog should be both the local problems which can be solved with Europe’s assistance, and the problems facing the whole country, for example, energy supplies, broadening of external economic links, and the contents of the proposed reforms – the economic platform, the small constitution, etc. Support among the elites and the population is gained in the process of the dialog.
The proper “Round Table” may be the culmination of the process when the supreme power begins to lose control over the country. By that time the idea of negotiations should become popular both among the elites and among the population. Negotiations become inevitable.
Subjects of negotiations are representatives of the central legislative and executive power, regional elites, security agencies, leaders and experts of the Democratic Forces. Presence of the international structures is necessary. The goal of the Round table is to prevent escalation of the crisis, to keep the civic peace and provide for legitimization of power in the country. The authorities should demonstrate that their intentions are serious by fulfilling the primary conditions, first of all, stop political persecution and release the political prisoners.
The very agreement of the authorities to have a dialog on the highest level will demonstrate the restriction of the dictator’s functions and confirm the beginning of democratic transformations.
Absence of the consolidated position of the Democratic Forces may lead to either their failure to participate in the negotiation (which will be carried out between the structures of the authorities imitating participation of the society), or to the fact that the interests of the pro-democratic part of the society will not be taken into account.
V. Target groups of the UDF in the Belarusian society
Joint socio-demographic groups which are aware of their interests do not exist in the modern Belarusian society. None of the groups on its own can be a driving force of changes. However, active people, who are unhappy about their position and the situation in the country, and who realize the necessity of changes, are present in all groups of the society – among workers and students, doctors and teachers, pensioners and housewives. This group of active unsatisfied people consists, on one hand, of the people with the need to realize themselves in the society and obtain a deserved status (there are students, intelligencia, entrepreneurs, etc. among them), and, on the other hand, of the state elites, who have the need to keep their status and property. Both groups need freedom and guarantees of protection from arbitrariness. Their interests draw together gradually. If the UDF manage to gain their confidence, they will succeed in uniting the basic driving forces of the society.
From the beginning of its existence the authoritarian regime offered the guarantees of “sustainable development” to the society. Using the advantages of cheap energy and having strengthened the command system of administration, for a certain time the regime managed to fulfill its promises. In the present situation the regime is less and less able to perform its main functions in the view of the society: to guarantee stability and growth of welfare, and to find agreement with external partners. That gives concern (although still unconscious) to all groups of the society. The issue of securing guarantees, just as providing new possibilities, becomes the key topic of the message to the society. Those who will be able to guarantee stability and further development to the main groups in the society will be brought back to rule the country.
At the same time, freedom remains the main concept of the UDF. That is why the idea of freedom in its different senses remains the best alternative to the image and the ideology of the authoritarian regime. Freedom is the basic value for the active part of the Belarusian society.
Basing on the situation, goals and objectives of the UDF, let’s define the main groups with which the Democratic Forces should interact.
The active and unsatisfied
They are present in all groups and are the main reserve to join the ranks of the pro-democratic organizations and participate in protest actions and campaigns. The active and unsatisfied make up about 10-15 % of the society, i.e. about 1 million people. The main motivation for them are such values as “freedom”, “truth”, “independence”, the desire to improve their situation and participate in administration of the society. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of them are not members of any political or non-governmental organizations. This is the main target group of the “For Freedom” campaign. It is them who are the main factor of the information influence on the so-called “undecided” in the conditions of absence of free media. They make up the majority of those who participates in protest actions today. The first objective of the “for Freedom” campaign is to activate and mobilize the active and unsatisfied to inform the society and put pressure on the authorities. In 2006 campaign we clearly observed the problem of distrust of this group to the structured pro-democratic forces. Clear strategy, initiative, and consolidation of the latter will help them to return the confidence of this group.
National elites
Managers of all levels. For a long time this group was a basement of the regime, enjoying significant preferences. Now it gradually becomes aware of its interests and grows dissatisfaction with its dependence on the state voluntarism. The growth of the dissatisfaction among the elites was vividly displayed as a result of the energy crisis. Before that the elites mostly recognized he regime as their guarantor. Today a split is developing inside the elites: either orientation to the regime or a search of the new guarantors. That opens a possibility for the democratic forces to propose cooperation to the part of the elites in exchange to mutual guarantees.
We also cannot exclude a possibility of self-organization of the elites for defense of their interests and bringing changes. In this case they will be interested in cooperation, and not in confrontation, with the UDF, if democrats manage to demonstrate their power and influence.
The undecided
Defining the politically passive part of the population (the so-called undecided) as the main target group is possible only in the conditions of democracy, when elections results depend on the voting of the majority. In the conditions of the dictatorship the undecided will remain on the side of those who they perceive as a stronger one, who controls big information resources, and, which is most important, will be able to satisfy their interests. Weakening of the authorities opens new possibilities for working with this group. However, without active participation of the two above mentioned groups the influence of the UDF on the opinions of the undecided will be insignificant. That is why we focus our attention on the active part of the society because the active minority influences the passive majority, and not vice versa.
The undecided are also concerned about guarantees: primarily, the guarantees of maintaining their relative welfare, stability, and also the possibility of their further development. The regime is also losing its positions among this group. Thus, we can single out common things in the interests of the whole society. In conditions when the dictatorship is able to provide for neither guarantees, nor freedom, it has either to intensify the war with the society, or to make concessions. Pressure on the society may lead to aggravation of the confrontation and the social explosion, while concessions mean the beginning of changes. Aggravation of the social and political situation may increase the number of the unsatisfied in this group and make them active. Mass involvement of this group in the protest actions will significantly reinforce the campaign of pressure and may lead to realization of “option 2” (see scheme 1). That is why we want to stress the importance of this group for the UDF. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the fact that their value orientation is different from the one of the active and unsatisfied group (the undecided are primarily concerned about prices and salaries), and that their participation in protest actions can not have a systematic nature (satisfaction of some demands usually leads to fast weakening of protest moods). The part of the undecided that can join active protests may be called the “potentially active and unsatisfied”. The work with the undecided should be directed at searching for the potentially active, proposing them to help defend their interests and activating them for participation in the pressure campaign.
The authorities
Earlier the democratic forces did not determine the authorities as their target group. In fact, the authorities and the opposition forces ignored each other, expressing mutual accusations and curses in the air. Proposing a dialog, we recognize the existence of the authorities as a potential partner and suggest that they should do the same. Mutual recognition of the main entities of the political conflict will become a real step to the national reconciliation and reforming of the society. The main methods of the UDF influence on the authorities before the beginning of the dialog are the campaign of pressure, the information campaign, and the international influence. It is important that, reminding about the illegitimacy of the ways of forming the current authorities, the democratic forces do not demand their immediate liquidation. Vice versa, they propose the path of gradual modernization.
VI. Unity of the Democratic Forces
The distribution of forces which exists in the Belarusian society does not allow pro-democrats to succeed in confrontation with the authorities in “different columns” which have different goals and strategies. The requirements of the dialog moreover envisage the maximally consolidated “democratic force”, which can be perceived by the authorities, elites, and other groups as an adequate partner.
That is why consolidation of the pro-democratic political and public forces is the most important condition for implementation of the strategy, and the short-term objective of change supporters.
The following principles should be the basis of cooperation of Democratic Forces among each other:
• acknowledgement of the common goals, strategic approaches, and the program of action
• division of functions between the political and the public sectors, between the forces of different political directions with different target groups; creation of the opportunity to participate in implementation of the strategy for all who share the common goals and strategic principles.
• The principle of agreement. It is worthwhile to initiate the signing of a special document – the new “Social Contract”, which should state not only the desire to participate in the process, but also mutual obligations with the measures of responsibility (the draft document should be prepared and proposed to the Congress).
Acknowledgement of the single strategy and the principle of agreement provide not for the single vertical structure, but for interaction of different sectors and structures. At the same time, the existence of the coalition of the political forces ensures coordination of the main campaigns and efficiency of decision making in conditions of a quickly-changing situation. That is why it is important to keep the coalition of the UDF as a core of interaction of all supporters of changes.
VII. Diversity of the Strategy
The strategy suggests taking into account the fact that the situation in Belarus and around the country is dynamic. Depending on how the situation changes, different options may be implemented. In the case of nomenclature coup (or physical incapacity of the dictator), the task of the objective forces is just to keep its role of the influential player in the political game. That is why it is important to gain the influence, in the first place. In order to do that the democratic forces need to consolidate and implement the directions of the strategies mentioned above. In the case of aggravation of the crisis it is important to have the instruments of the campaigns of pressure and the influence on the undecided. However, the general direction is a peaceful path of preliminary negotiations and agreements about cooperation for the cause of modernization of the country.
Time is an irreplaceable resource. Beginning from the events of March 2006, the course of events in Belarus is accelerating. Mass consciousness is changing, as well as the economic and the international situation. In the end, the forces which will be able to meet the challenge of time in the most efficient and adequate way, will become the winners. The old motto: Periculum in mora ((delay means death) is as relevant as never before.